Middle Tennessee vs Arkansas State 12/1/2012

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Arkansas State is a heavy favorite winning 76% of simulations over Middle Tennessee. Ryan Aplin is averaging 316 passing yards and 2.4 TDs per simulation and David Oku is projected for 77 rushing yards and a 69% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 24% of simulations where Middle Tennessee wins, Logan Kilgore averages 2.43 TD passes vs 0.51 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.26 TDs to 0.77 interceptions. Jordan Parker averages 80 rushing yards and 0.7 rushing TDs when Middle Tennessee wins and 73 yards and 0.39 TDs in losses. Arkansas State has a 33% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 87% of the time.
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